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Russia's growing threat: European officials warn NATO attack could come before 2029
European defense leaders have raised alarms about the possibility of Russia launching an attack against a NATO member state earlier than previously expected. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius indicated that while the original estimate placed potential Russian military action against NATO countries around 2029, new assessments suggest that this threat could materialize as soon as 2028.
Pistorius highlighted the rapid militarization efforts by Moscow despite ongoing conflicts, and acknowledged that some military experts believe the recent summer marked a dangerous threshold, possibly the last peaceful period before escalation. He reassured that NATO remains capable of defending itself, emphasizing its significant deterrent capabilities, both conventional and nuclear.
The Baltic states Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are considered especially vulnerable. EU Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius stressed that intelligence from Germany, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, and regional agencies points to a potential Russian test of NATO’s collective defense clause, Article 5, within the next two to four years. He warned that such aggression would imperil the entire alliance and the European Union.
Germany’s chief of intelligence, Martin Jaeger, described the current situation in Europe as a "cold peace," warning against complacency amid the growing threat of Russian hybrid tactics, including sabotage, disinformation, and drone incursions. Jaeger highlighted that Russia could be prepared for direct military confrontation with NATO to expand its influence westward.
The elevated concern among European and NATO officials reflects a shift towards greater military vigilance and preparedness as signs of Russian military buildup and aggressive cyber and sabotage activities increase, raising the stakes for security in the region.